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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.