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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."